Wednesday, July 13, 2011

S2 NL West Predictions

NL West

Colorado        107-55
San Francisco 98-64
Los Angeles    84-78
San Diego       71-91

-- The Rockies finished with the best record in the majors last season on their way to a World Series appearance. Not too far behind the Rox with an impressive finish was the City by the Bay who almost reached 100 wins as well. The third place Dodgers even had a season to be proud about, only missing the playoffs by two games. The Rockies and the Giants will be hard to catch though the Dodgers are slightly upgraded. The Pads are going to occupy the basement once again, there's just not enough offense there to play into spacious Petco. There may be two wildcard teams in this division, which should be won by the Rockies once again.

Predictions

Colorado
San Francisco
Los Angeles
San Diego


Colorado Rockies

Last season the Rockies offense was the best in the league, this was no surprise given the way Coors Field plays. The real story in Colorado was a pitching staff that proved you can toe the rubber in the ultimate hitters park and still be successful. Last year usfbully said the Rox had four "potential #1 starters" and they proved him right. The four horsemen, Vazquez, Seneca, Solano and Ennis combined for 52 wins. Vazquez, Seneca and Ennis all posted sub 4 ERA's in 105 combined starts, an amazing feat at Coors Field. The same staff returns with the addition of two bright prospects, Shigetoshi Cheng and Michael Francouer, which only spells doom for the rest of the NL West.

Surprisingly there were no 50 homer performances despite the presence of some guys with considerable pop in their bat. All Star CF Moises Vicente had a stellar season, hitting .358 with 22HR and 81RBI and also nabbed 48 bases. Torey Marquez and Hughie Patterson were the 40 homer guys, with 48 and 44 homers apiece. The same lineup returns and more of the same is expected out of the Rox offense. The pitching staff is good enough to not need a lot of run support, but they will likely get it anyway.

Shortstop prospect Babe Farrell will likely move to third and will add yet another quality bat when he comes up full time. which should be no later than the start of S4. LF Niko Bittle may be the 50 home guys the Rox are missing and may see major time this season as he has already spent 6 seasons in the minors. Despite having the level of talent that they do in the majors already there are still a number of relievers in the Rox system with top potential.

Individual Awards:

All Star
    P Clem Ennis
    P Alfredo Vazquez
    1B Sherman Serra
    CF Moises Vicente
    RF Hughie Patterson

Silver Slugger
    CF Moises Vicente



San Francisco Giants

Last season the Giants brought back ace 35 year old veteran starter Joseph Park and he didn't disappoint. Park earned All Star honors and ended the season with a 2.66 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 14 wins. Rookie All Star RP Ricardo Moya had a great freshman season and saved 20 of 22 while posting a 2.84 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. A trio of rookies join the staff this season. The biggest impact will likely come from Brutus Miller who will likely slot in as a nice option against righty hitters.

A number of retirements and a couple FA's will have a minimal impact on the Giants offense as Shawn Montgomery and All Star Vincenzo Weathers look to lead the team again. Weathers had an impressive season at the pitchers park known as AT&T Park, hitting .291 while jacking 48 with 131 RBI. CF Oscar Yamamoto nearly stole 60 bases (58) and was on base consistently enough (.347 OBP) to make him a legit weapon last season. This team won nearly 100 games last season and all the big pieces are back to see if they can take down Colorado.

A nearly 100 win team with the fourth overall pick isn't fair and kcden made sure to capitalize on the situation by drafting future All Star shortstop Pascual Vargas. Vargas is a legit shortstop prospect, projecting to have the fielding chops to play the position well and enough skill at the plate to be a middle of the order guy. On top of the draft, kcden also signed COF James Matsuzaka, who should make a nice #2 hitter or 5/6 hitter depending on what spots are open.


Individual Awards:

All Stars
    P Joseph Park
    P Ricardo Moya
    SS Emmanuel Quinones
    LF Vincenczo Weathers

Gold Glove
    SS Emmanuel Quinones
    CF Shawn Truby



Los Angeles Dodgers

Despite having one of the weaker pitching staff's on paper they ended up being their strength in S1 as they missed a WC birth by only a few games. Starters Miguel Mota and Keith Walters lead the rotation with 3.23 and 3.45 ERA's respectively. The two also combined for 226 strikeouts while only issuing 104 walks. However, with only 17 wins between them despite those solid numbers, they didn't receive much support from a stagnant offense. It says a lot about this staff that LA could muster a winning record without a quality contribution from the offense. This season they have called up four rookies, including SP Yorvit Zorrilla, who will add depth to the staff.

The Dodgers will return the same basic lineup from last season. The difference, though, is that they will have promising youngsters LF Jamie Jang and CF Dennis Osborne for a full season after they were called up after roughly 40 games last season. An extra 40+ games of support from these youngsters may provide the support needed to push this team into the playoffs and help last seasons top offensive performers Damaso Coronado and Rich Savage.

Fellman spent $30M on international free agent Evereth Santayana, who will likely compete for a Cy Young one day. The sacrifice of spending so much was the loss of their first four picks including 17th overall pick, left fielder Marshall Olson.

Individual Awards:

None



San Diego Padres

There's no mystery what doomed the Padres to a last place finish in the west; the offense. Not surprising in spacious Petco, but this lineup wasn't expected to do much anyway. Pascual Canseco and Kirk Timlin were the steadiest hitters for the Friars with a .282 and .273 average, respectively. Unfortunately these two don't have much in the way of power and only combined for 11 home runs and 103 RBI. Team homerun leader Vince Broadhurst knocked 29 out of the park and drove in 95. Broadhurst was the only 20+ homer guy for the Pads, though, and with the same lineup returning there figures to be another offensive vacuum in SD.

On paper the Padres staff is below average at best and they were aided by pitcher friendly Petco on the way to a well above average statistical performance. All Star reliever Hipolito Ozuna benefited from the park to earn the honor. Phillip Parker lead the rotation with a 2.78 ERA and 1.15 WHIP but was only able to win 9 games. Rookie SP Jon Powell has been called up this season but will need to dig deep if he wants to add any true quality to the staff. Veteran closer Clem Lynch proved dependable last season with 35 saves and returns at the age of 35. If this staff can continue to take advantage of how Petco plays they should be able to keep the score close. When you keep the score close you always give your team a chance to win, and that's what Jying98 will have to hope for.

Fifteenth overall pick 2B Russell Crawford will be a nice upgrade to the offense but at only 19 years old is still at least 4 seasons away from make a major league contribution. Future SP Gus McGriff has the potential to be the staff ace and is closer than Crawford but not close enough to help the Friars this season. There's some decent potential on the position player side of the system with everyday quality guys like catcher Chipper Marion. Brighter days are ahead, and they will probably come sooner rather than later.

Individual Awards:

All Star
    P Hipolito Ozuna

Gold Glove
    1B Kirk Timlin

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

S2 NL South Predictions

NL South

St. Louis    86-76
Houston     84-78
Florida       81-81
Atlanta       75-87

-- St. Louis stole a very competitive NL South title late from the Astros en route to an ALCS appearance. The  pitching staff largely carried the team as the offense could only muster subpar numbers. Houston went into the offseason with a sour taste in their mouth after a fairly consistent regular season performance. Although Florida and Atlanta occupied the lower half of the division both teams have to feel like they are not that far off from a title. All four teams made some sort of upgrade during the offseason and it may be that the team that had the most effective upgrade takes the division. I fully expect this division to be very competitive again without much separation between the top and bottom. This will be an interesting division to watch in Season 2.

Predictions:

Florida
St. Louis
Atlanta
Houston



St. Louis Cardinals

As a group the numbers for the Cardinals offense were disappointing. Despite being in the top 5 in team home runs they were in the lower half for runs scored.Clay Austin and Wayne Rhodes, however, were not disappointments and combined for 77 homers and 196 RBI as well as hitting .316 and .338 respectively. Jamie Lo and Kevin Kwon were inconsistent at the plate and will need to step up like they did during the post season. There doesn't appear to be any changes to the lineup for Season 2 and unless they have another S1 disappointment there should be enough runs to support a solid pitching staff in St. Louis.

The Cards pitching staff is reasonably deep and performed well last season, only allowing opponents to hit .259. SP Stan Barrett had a major issue with this command last season and is capable of a better performance. SP Dean Zimmerman threw 212 innings last season with 2.50 ERA and 1.12 WHIP as the teams most consistent pitcher. However, he was only rewarded with 9 wins, something that must change if the Cards want to repeat as NL South champs.

With the 20th overall pick the Cards took SS Pat Chong who will likely move to third base by the time he makes to the bigs. Their SP prospect depth is enviable and they can count no less than five potential ML quality starters in their system including future Cy Young Matty Canseco who is on schedule for a Season 4 debut. Uber SS/3B prospect Dan Wilhelm is on track for a similar debut date and will definitely supply runs to back Canseco's starts.

Individual Awards:

All Star
    C Clay Austin

Silver Slugger
    P Dean Zimmerman
    C Clay Austin

Gold Glove
    P Dean Zimmerman
    C Clay Austin



Houston Astros

First baseman Vicente Chavez had a great year for the Astros, leading the way with 42 dingers and 110 batted in while hitting .306. All Star Tony Valdez and Albert Dykhoff also made major contributions to an above average ranked offense. Only one part of last years lineup has departed, COF Juan Aguilar, who shouldn't be missed all that much after hitting .254. Chavez should lead this Astros offense back to a successful season and maybe the Astros can score enough runs to challenge for the division title.

To bolster the pitching staff talbott has promoted three guys, SP Shawn Sewell, RP Rico Mateo and RP Miguel Rijo. Sewell will immediately come in and throw somewhere in the top three spots of the rotation. SP Dennis Charles, Houstons best pitcher in S1, will welcome the addition, which may be the added punch this team needs to win the division. RP Luis Cortez was solid as a rookie and should continue to build on his success and maybe even take a few save opportunities away from last years closer AJ Martin.

It would be a surprise if SP David Borbon was not called up after the arbitration cutoff. Although he begins the season in AA he already has 5 pro years under his belt. P.T. Cobb is another bright SP prospect in the 'Stros system and could make his ML debut late this season with an aim to be a full time ML'er next season.

Individual Awards:

All Star
    3B Tony Valdez

Silver Slugger
    3B Tony Valdez



Florida Marlins

I predicted that the Marlins would have one of the better offenses in baseball last season but they underperformed, even when you adjust for the park they play in. Free swinging SS Vinny Baez went yard 49 times and drove in 132 but could have hit for a better average (.281). Rookie first baseman, and your AL ROY, Diory Jose also had a 40 homer year with 45 and 123 ribbies. Rootgargle will return the same lineup and hope for some better AB's this season.

SP Will Granderson had a very solid season as the ace for the Fish and posted a 2.69 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Unfortunately for Granderson he only went 13-11 though he held opponents to a stellar .213 average. Rookie RP's Jordan Meyer and Martin Scholl proved to be pretty dependable but had to come in too many times to back poor starts by the starters. Opie added solid reliever Burt Case but needed to have added some SP talent for a sure shot at the title.

A trio of guys who will upgrade the current rotation continue to develop in the Florida minor league system. Tony Urbina, Hayes Leary and Seop Mori will one day be the faces of the rotation but all three still have some developing left to do. Big time international signing Yovani Mujica could be a fringe starter but may do his best work as a very durable closer or setup man. Left field prospect Joe Bush will provide a spark to the lineup once he reaches the bigs in S5 or so.

Individual Awards:

All Stars
    P Martin Scholl
    SS Vinny Baez

Rookie of the Year
    1B Diory Jose

Silver Slugger
    SS Vinny Baez



Atlanta Braves

It was the offense that let the Braves down last season, ranking toward the bottom of the barrel in most offensive statistical categories. Help is on the way in S2 as rookies Quentin Langerhans and Alan Voigt look to bring some energy to the team and some quality to the lineup. Langerhans in particular is a COF who should hit for a steady average and is capable of hitting 20-25 homers. This is welcome news to Braves fans as no player on the team last season had a performance worth mentioning.

The Braves staff looked dependable on paper last season and ended up being a pleasant surprise. This season they add promising rookie reliever Clarence Sanders to the ML squad. Though he only has two seasons of pro experience he is already major league ready yet still has a huge upside. Starters Neifi Soto and Jeremy Estes put up very solid seasons but the lack of offense was clear as the only recorded a combined 15 wins.

The Braves drafted SP Jaime Trammell with the 14th overall pick. Trammell may not be able to throw enough innings in the majors to be a true starter but he could end up being one of the best spot starter/LR's in the majors once he gets there. RP Edinson Navarro has the potential to be a lights out closer but is still at least two seasons away from his ML debut.

Individual Awards:

All Star
    P Jorge Cortes
    2B Duke Diaz

Gold Glove
    RF Albert Rodriguez  

Monday, July 11, 2011

S2 NL East Predictions

NL East

Philadelphia         81-81
Washington D.C. 76-86
New York Mets  68-94
Pittsburgh            65-97

-- I predicted last season that captains Pirates would top the East and jonbonky would bring up the rear. I literally couldn't have been more wrong as the two teams finished exactly opposite to what I predicted. The division as a whole was weak and Philly won the division with a .500 record. This is a fun division to call because the Pittsburgh squad has much more to offer than last seasons finish and they got slightly better by promoting some prospects. However, Philadelphia has called up a number of prospects who will only add to the quality of the squad. It feels like the division is theirs to lose but I wouldn't be surprised if the Pirates push them until late in the season. I would also expect both teams to make the playoffs regardless of who takes the division title.

Prediction:

Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Washington D.C.
New York Mets


Philadelphia Phillies

I basically trashed the Phillies in lasts seasons prediction and even though they had the lowest winning percentage of any of the division winners they performed way above expectations. The pitching staff that I dubbed "one of the worst in the league" not only stayed out of the statistical basement but were slightly above average in most categories. SP's Jarrett Hermann and midseason call up Erubiel Fernandez were the best on the rotation although both ended with a bunch of no decisions. A number of departures has opened up a handful of roster spots in Season 2 and jonbonky has tapped his minor leagues to add some quality to the staff. Of these SP Turner Reese represents maybe the biggest upgrade.

A number of rookies will take the stage for the Phillies and together the four of them could take this offense from below average to above average. First baseman Jason Karnuth and SS/3B Luther Ciarncross could be the new faces of this franchise after the season and both could make a push for NL ROY. Either way I'm sure RF Alberto Carrasco will appreciate any contribution to the offense coming off of a season where he hit .320 with 43 homers and 125 RBI. This offense is easily the most improved in the NL East and should back the improved pitching.

Last season the Phils had major success in the scouting department scoring two big time prospects. The first, SP Horacio Vincente out of the Dominican, has the potential to be one of the more dominant starters in the NL and possibly a Cy Young candidate if they can get enough innings out of him. With the 12th overall pick the Phils chose SP Ernest Mantei, who should be a nice back end starter. Even after promoting a bunch of pitchers Philly still has depth in the system with blue chippers Lonny Redondo and Gallahad Farrell. This system remains well stocked even after a raid by the parent club.

Individual Awards:

All Star
    RF Alberto Carrasco

Silver Slugger
    RF Alberto Carrasco



Washington D.C. Nationals

Randy Taylor had a great season at second base for the Nationals, winning the Silver Slugger for the position after hitting .294 with 35 bombs and 98 RBI. Benny Romero had a very solid season as well and was one of the only guys to support Taylor at the plate. Somewhat hyped rookie catcher Jesus Cairo disappointed to an extent. While his power output was as to be expected at 15 but his average was severely lacking at .245. He will need to pick it up and contribute more to the offense if the Nats want to compete for the division, especially since there are no additions being made to the offense this season.

Tito Ellenwood and Reggie Perry had solid seasons as starters and probably deserved to win more games than they did (16 and 13, respectively). Randall McGuire is a promising SP prospect who had a decent rookie season, 3.98 ERA /1.42 WHIP in 126.2 IP's, but only has two pro seasons under his belt and should continue to grow into a nice third starter. New owner nesman added starter Ubaldo Valdes to add depth to the rotation, although he won't provide the kind of shot in the arm needed to take them to the top of the division.

The Nats scored two decent prospects last season in SP Yorman Gabriel out of the Dominican and Neifi Flores with the 27th overall pick. Even without Gabriel and Flores the Nats still have a very strong minor league system with blue chip SP's Pedro Polanco and Jimmie Sanchez. Both of these guys are top of the rotation starters and should join the big league club full time within the next two seasons.

Individual Awards:

All Star
    P Tito Ellenwood

Silver Slugger
    2B Randy Taylor



New York Mets

The Mets pitching in S1 was nothing to write home about but was the best facet of the team as they ranked just about average in most statistical categories. Unfortunately the offense wasn't there to back the starters and the win totals for the rotation from S1 will reflect that. In particular, rookie SP Ray Rowand only finished 6-13 despite a not so bad 4.09 ERA and and respectable 1.30 WHIP. The Mets added some pieces in the offseason in Miguel and Petey Valentin (no relation), but the jury is out on how much they will help the rotation. If the offense can pick it up they may be able to back the starters for some more wins in S2 and claw their way up the NL East.

Francisco Lee, Carl Porter and Emil Wilfredo led the Mets offense in S1 with Wilfredo and Porter posting .313 and .328 averages, respectively. However, Lee was let go as an FA and signed in Montreal. The three combined for 95 homers and 258 RBI . After them, though, good offensive performances were scant. The Mets didn't really add any major pieces during the offseason so unless the supporting cast can really step up it will probably be another losing season in Queens.

The Mets have some nice looking prospects down on the farm with guys like 1B Tommy Pence and C Deacon Daniels. Daniels is on track to be a full time ML'er by S4 while Pence looks for a S5 debut with a permanent S6 promotion. Both guys victimize pitchers at the ML level and Pence can straight up tear the cover off the ball and already has an elite level plate discipline while still at HiA ball. SP prospect Johnny Hall could help the ML team now but squeezing out one more season of development from the 23 year old may benefit the team more over the long haul.

Individual Awards:

All Stars
    C Carl Porter
    3B Emil Wilfredo

Gold Glove
    2B Francisco Rivera



Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates were one of those teams who suffered from below par performances both at the plate and on the hill. This team is capable of a much better record than 65-97 and I fully expect them to vastly improve on that mark this season. To help out the offense marble26 has called up big bopping 1B Derek Champion, a switch hitter with a ton of power and plate discipline. He'll join the already dangerous second baseman Joey Lockwood who hit .303 last season with 27 homers and 105 RBI, nice production from that position. Pirates fans should put last seasons performance at the dish out of their minds and expect an exciting year from the Bucs bats this season.

Alex Guardado was simply electric as a 22 year old rookie last season, posting 13 wins with a 2.09 ERA and 1.12 WHIP and was rewarded for his first half performance with an All Star nod. Veteran closer Maicer Granados was a disappointment last season with a bloated 4.52 ERA.Starter Mike Rupe proved undependable and allowed the opposition to nearly hit .300 (.294). Rookie RP Malcolm Towers makes his way to the big leagues this season and although he didn't develop as the Bucs would have liked he will add a solid arm to the bullpen. The Pirates added nothing else in the offseason and have no real reason to, like their offensive counterparts I'd expect their staff to step up this season and compete for a division title.

RP Willie Ozuna and SP Don Wang are at most a season and a half away from needing to look for living space in Pittsburgh and will provide nice depth to the pitching staff. Anthony Hogan, a legit shortstop prospect with a bat to go with it also remains only a year, year and a half away from the big league squad. Going into his 5th season in the minors you would wonder how much more development the AAA coaching staff can squeeze out of him but even if he stopped progressing right now he would be a great option at second base with his combination of hitting ability and speed. The Bucs suffered from a large embarrassment by outgoing brass, captain10a, when they drafted sure-gloved CF prospect Farmer Wagner and then never sent him bus tickets to rookie ball despite giving him a $1.75M bonus. In response Wagner took his talents South Beach... or somewhere other than Pittsburgh.

Individual Awards:

All Star
    P Alex Guardado

S2 NL North Predictions

NL East

Cincinnati   102-60
Montreal    86-76
Chicago     83-79
Milwaukee 63-99

-- Cincinnati sped away with the division last as a combination of dominant hitting and pitching propelled them to the #2 seed in the NL. It was thought that Montreal would be able to keep up with Cincinnati but the Expos bats weren't up to the task, still, Montreal earned a WC birth. The Cubs played better than expected and finished only three games back of Montreal for the final WC spot. The Brewers struggled to get consistent performances all around and have much work to do to get back into the conversation in the East.

Predictions:
Cincinnati
Montreal
Chicago
Milwaukee


Cincinnati Reds

Despite only earning the second seed in the NL the Reds were the talk of the league as they almost swept all four major awards, easily making them the most decorated team in the league. Jin-Chi Jiang took home the MVP, Michel Santos walked with the Cy Young and Bert Workman won the Fireman of the Year award. Jiang put up a performance that even shadowed that of Oakland's Damaso Torres, tearing apart pitchers with a .361 AVG, 62 homers and 154 RBI. His homer and RBI totals were best in the majors and he was only a single percentage point behind Chicago Cub Geraldo Romano in the race for batting average. In fact, had Jiang played for an AL team, he would have won the Triple Crown without breaking a sweat. Fellow Japan-born catcher Tsuyoshi Chen put up the second best offensive performance for the Reds with 32 HR and 92 RBI. Cincy returns it's full arsenal for Season 2, pitchers beware.

The same warning can go for opposing batters. No major departures from the staff here, and one major addition in veteran SP Joseph Park, mean another season of grinding and empty swings for opposition hitters. Thirty year old Michel Santos comes off his Cy Young season to once again head one of the best rotations in baseball. Santos and fellow starter Teddy Henderson combined for 40 wins and 488 K's last season. Throw in the 14 wins that Park picked up in San Fran and you can bet it will be World Series or bust for the Reds this season.

SP's David Rios and Brook Dodd developed nicely last season and continue their path toward the majors. Dodd is much closer than Rios and if any of Cincy's current starters falter it wouldn't be surprising to see Dodd make his way up to the bigs sooner than later. Rios is potentially just as good as Michel Santos, which really isn't fair to the rest of the league. The Reds system also boasts a couple of relievers with high quality ML potential. This franchise seems set for seasons to come and the shrewd acquisition of players by cbert could guarantee the AL East for long haul.

Individual Awards:

All Stars
    P Michel Santos
    P Teddy Henderson
    P Bert Workman
    LF Jin-Chi Jiang

MVP
    LF Jin-Chi Jaing

Cy Young
    Michel Santos

Fireman of the Year
    Bert Workman

Silver Slugger
    LF Jin-Chi Jiang

Gold Glove
    3B Alex Stern



Montreal Expos

Last season I predicted that Montreal would have the best pitching staff in the division. Cincinnati gave them a run for their money but Montreal still bested them from top to bottom. Unfortunately for les Expos their hitting lagged too far behind to get them to the top of the division and out of the first round of the playoffs. Eduardo Amaro, Hawk Cummings and Wilton Shea were arguably the leagues best trio of pitchers but only combined for 45 wins despite two of them having sub 3 ERA's and sub 1.20 WHIP's in a park skewed toward hitters. Jamie Stokes converted on 34 of 39 save opportunities and was one of only two Expos pitchers with an ERA above 5. The entire staff returns for S2 so look for more of the same on the hill for Montreal.

Montreal hit for a good team average but just couldn't push enough runs across the plate to get over the hump. This is partly due to their lack of power. 1B Grover Lesher lead the team with 37 long balls but only drove in 92, although he did hit for an impressive average at .351. Far behind Lesher was Rusell Bigbie and Adam Heredia with 23 homers apiece. As a team Montreal ranked near the lower quarter in home runs and will need to find about another 20 to crawl up to average. They seem to have the ability to get on base but just lack that big hit. A few vets were allowed to walk as FA's by diesel and as of writing only nine position players are currently on the 25 man roster. One or two more above average bats could mean the world to the Expos and get them to a point where they can challenge Cincinnati.

There are no real big time bats in the Expos minor league system and after drafting a reliever with the 28th overall pick there is no future boost to this offense. Their system still boasts a load of pitching talent like RP B.C. Satin and SP Reagan Green and they should be at on the hill for seasons to come.


Individual Awards:

All Stars
    P Eduardo Amaro
    2B Alving Morales
    CF Jose Fernandez



Chicago Cubs

The Cubs surprised many and finished far above what many thought they would. First baseman Geraldo Romano electrified the league and prevented all world Jin-Chi Jiang from achieving his Triple Crown by a single percentage point. Romano hit .362 and hit 45 out of the park while driving in 124. COF Nipsey Holzemer also had a big year with 38/89 and a .277 average and was one of a handful of Cubs players to impress many as shocked many by staying in the wildcard race until very late in the season. Role player Alex Guerrero was allowed to walk by the Cubs but his impact was minimal and the offense should perform once again in S2.

Young starting pitchers Santos Gonzalez and Roger Baker lead the Cubs in innings pitched last season with both posting sub 4 ERA's. Veteran starter John Lomasney turned in an impressive performance going 15-9 and bolstering the rotation. This season the Cubs have called up two pitchers after allowing some vets to walk. There was no real clear cut closer for the Cubs last season but 20 year old Santo Maduro hopes to solidify himself as the go to guy while Henry Garcia will look to provide a dependable long arm out of the pen.

The Cubs did well for themselves in both the draft and abroad. With the 3rd overall pick the Cubs took future ace-fireballer Diego Ramirez and snagged SS prospect Robinzon Benitez from the Dominican. They join an already well stocked system which means the future is bright for the Good Guys.

Individual Awards:

All Star
    1B Geraldo Romano

Silver Slugger
    1B Geraldo Romano

Gold Glove
    LF Nipsey Holzemer


Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee struggled last season and both their hitting and pitching was lackluster. While the staff kept itself out of the statistical basement the offense wasn't as fortunate. The Milwaukee offense posted the lowest team batting average in the majors and scored the second fewest runs despite hitting almost 200 homers as a team. Lyle Long had a great season with 52 homers and 125 RBI to lead the team. Other big boppers like OF Bob Burkett, 36 homers, provided power but couldn't get on base consistently enough to make a difference in the win column. A couple retirements mean open spots on the ML squad this season and catcher Brant York has been called up to help and he figures to provide both average and power for the Crew in Season 2.

On the bump the Brewers were no bed of roses and even if the offense had scored a lot of runs who knows if these guys could have protected the lead. Another group of retiree/releases means openings on the S2 squad and William Hyun and James Scanlan look to fill their shoes. Scanlan in particular looks like a good LR/SP option and should provide a spark to the rotation if he starts. RP David Iwakazi was allowed to walk as an FA despite being Milwaukee's lone All Star, though his second half lead to a bad 1.68 WHIP which probably didn't win him over with new owner buddy996.

With the 24th overall pick the Brewers took Gorkys Delgado, an interesting RF prospect with great discipline and a good combination of speed and a feel for stealing bags. Howie Hollins is still the BrewCrew's top prospect and could be called upon this season if necessary. Shortstop Kiki Lee is an electrifying prospect and could also contribute to the ML squad this season at the age of 21.

Individual Awards:

All Stars
    P David Iwakazi

Sunday, July 10, 2011

S2 AL West Predictions

AL West

Anaheim  89-73
Seattle     88-74
Arizona    85-77
Oakland  80-82

-- Last season Seattle led most of the way but couldn't go the distance as Anaheim took the division by just a game. In what ended up being the most competitive division in the AL Arizona could have made the playoffs or won the division just as easily as Seattle and Anaheim. Oakland, with their one man wrecking crew Damaso Torres, wasn't that far behind either. It's a toss up this season but look for another tight race in the AL West.

Prediction:
Anaheim
Arizona
Seattle
Oakland


Anaheim

Anaheim edged out Seattle by a single game for the AL West and relied heavily on their offense to take the division. Then, on their way to the inaugural World Series title their pitching kicked in and they shocked the For Life world. Offensively the onslaught was led by All Star RF RJ Nunez who compiled 119 RBI on 32 HR while hitting .318 and Kip Winston, who supplied the power and led the team in homers, 40, and RBI, 126 while hitting .271. All of the core pieces return to a mostly veteran lineup and the bombs should continue to fly out of Angels Stadium in Season 2.

Pitching was the weak link during the regular season and ranked well below average across the board. James Caruso and Paul King had pedestrian regular season performances as compared to their post season campaigns, while Phillip Stull impressed over the summer and was rather normal through the playoffs. A number of pitchers from last seasons squad have moved on but the heart of the staff remains the same. Wilton Sung will start the season on the big league roster and will provide some spot start and LR help. It will be up to the offense again to carry this team back to the title, and overachieving performances like that of Phil Stull will be necessary for their pitching to keep up.

Seth LaRue remains the Angels top prospect, a righty with Cy Young caliber stuff, LaRue should be ready by S4. Hitting the majors before LaRue will be lights out reliever Jaime Stephens a left handed fireballer. With the 9th overall pick the Angels added more pitching depth in top LR Slim Evans.

Individual Awards:

All Stars
    P Shayne Farley
    RF RJ Nunez

Silver Slugger
    RF RJ Nunez

Gold Glove
    CF Pepper Post



Seattle Mariners

The Mariners squeaked into the playoffs last season after failing to capture the AL West title but showed they deserved their WC1 slot by beating AL East champ Baltimore. They were swept by a dominant Detroit squad in the ALDS. Both sides of the ball were balanced with neither the pitching or hitting performing extremely well or bad. The offense was led by All Star Gus Lavarnway and catcher Julian Mateo. The two combined to hit 73 homers and 222 RBI in cavernous Safeco. Better than expected performances by 1B/DH Carlos Castro and 3B Rafael Bautista aided the team in their playoff push. The offense will get another bump from top prospect, CF Chris Dunn who looks to add more pop and speed to the lineup.

The Mariners staff had trouble staying consistent, even at pitcher friendly Safeco, but performed well overall and were led by lefty Jude Reed who posted 14 wins and only 2 losses. Four rookies will make their debut for the Mariners staff this season including R.A. Clyburn who looks to break into the rotation.

After the all of the promotions the Seattle system remains decently stocked with players like 6th overall pick Vladimir Rodriguez. There aren't any blue chippers to be found but a handful of ML quality prospects remain in the system. Like many other teams Seattle went without signing a major international last season.

Individual Awards:

All Stars
    P Jude Reed
    P Rob Houston
    C Julian Mateo
    2B Alex Clark
    SS Junior Crespo
    CF Gus Lavarnway

Gold Glove
    LF Hooks Rolls
    RF Scott Bolick


Arizona Diamondbacks


The Dbacks were on the cusp of a playoff birth last season finishing only three games behind Seattle and Toronto for a WC spot. Their entire squad was consistent but went unrewarded, something they hope to change this season. No major departures or arrivals for the ML squad means that fans in Phoenix can probably expect another winning season and, perhaps, a trip to the playoffs. OF Jose Chavez led last years offense with a stellar 38 homers and 117 RBI while hitting just below .300. Rookie OF Esteban Cabeza did his best to emulate the veteran by going for 32 and 105 on route to a fine rookie season. Expect more fireworks from this squad in S2.

Again, consistency was the name of the game here Jose Arrojo and Odalis Escobar turned in solid seasons atop the rotation for Arizona. A couple of vets exit the team but don't expect any less of a performance out of the staff has a whole. Coming off of one of the better rookie pitching campaigns, Ted Reynolds looks to improve upon his 30 saves in 37 opportunities. If the rotation can remain consistent there's no reason to believe he won't be able to. Young SP Kevin Young was a bit of a mystery last season, posting numbers short of what you'd expect from him. Look for Young to bounce back, all it would take is a couple of extra wins from him and a couple more converted save opportunities from Reynolds to put this team in the playoffs and maybe atop the division.

Norberto Martin was a major international victory for the Dbacks and is the catcher of the future. 21st overall pick Vernon Turner will provide some depth to the rotation one day but after these two there's not much to write home about. However, another successful year of scouting could help to quickly stock this system.

Individual Awards:
    1B Giovanni Sodowsky

Gold Glove
    3B Peter Becker



Oakland Atheltics

Last season usfbully wrote "When it comes to Oakland, the conversation begins and ends with Damaso Torres." He couldn't have been more right. The All Star, 2B Silver Slugger and inaugural AL MVP tore up opposition pitching and hit .347 in a pitchers park with 23 homers and 115 RBI. Oh, and he stole 52 bases. Is it possible to have a man crush on a virtual player? Because Torres would be a prime candidate. Don't overlook the performances by Mike Eckenstahler and Al Franco as well, who did their part to provide the pitching staff with some offense to protect. Overall, though, Oaklands power numbers were low, even considering the park they play in, and if there's any way nutbag can add some power they will probably challenge for the AL West title. No major additions or losses to the lineup means that Torres and Co will be back to wreck pitchers once again.   

Last season 30 year old Curtis Miller proved to be a rock in the rotation with 15 wins and while the rest of the rotation wasn't bad it wasn't that good either. Another bright spot, vet closer Jermain Ford converted on 23 of 27 save chances and proved dependable. However,  a lack of SP depth plagued this talented team last season and with no SP additions to to the rotation it could present another road block to success this season.

With the 13th overall pick the A's took college senior Dave Reames, a big boppin' 1B who may contribute to the ML team this season. Heine Weaver  is the pride and joy of the A's system and is only about a season away from being a full time ML'er. The right handed hitting second baseman has ML power and should hit for a high average in addition. Rogers Davey will be provide a nice boost to the A's rotation when he's ready in about two to three seasons.

Individual Awards:

MVP
    2BDamaso Torres


All Star
    2B Damaso Torres

Silver Slugger
    2B Damaso Torres

S2 AL South Predictions

AL South

Kansas City   94-68
Tampa Bay     77-85
Charlotte        65-97
Texas             57-105

-- Last season KC cake walked to the AL South title and the second seed in the playoffs. Texas, predicted to finish second and possibly challenge KC for the top spot was hugely disappointing; their pitching strength didn't come through and their offense couldn't carry them passed 60 wins. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay and Charlotte got solid performances from some surprise spots to stay out of the basement. Still, with the core of KC's offense returning the division is theirs to lose.

Predictions:
Kansas City
Texas
Tampa Bay
Charlotte

Kansas City


In Season 1 the Royals offense was nearly unstoppable with great performances from All Star 1B Harry Skinner and 3B Stone Bowen who combined for 91 homers and 250 RBI. RF Sal Liniak had a breakout performance hitting .325 with 28 big fly's and 106 RBI. The team ranked in the top three of most major offensive statistical categories and with the entire offense from S1 returning there is no reason to think they won't put up a similar performance.

By the numbers the Royals pitching staff performed well below the league average but obviously did well enough to back their offensive juggernaut. The three headed rookie pitching monster of Buck Decker, Diego Suarez and Ryan Randall put in great performances and may be the best story of S1 after the magical Series run of the Angels. The three rookies put together 46 wins although they were mostly backed by the offense. Wandy Batista proved solid as the closer with 38 saves in 44 chances, though the rest of the bullpen was a bit weak. What's more surprising that KC allowed a couple of their vet relievers, who put in decent performances, walk as FA's at the time of writing. Still, the offense in KC is so strong that it would take some sort of lackluster season to keep KC out of the playoffs and from atop the division.

KC drafted ML ready catcher David Martin, a college sophomore, with the second overall pick of the draft. Martin should find his way to the majors sooner rather than later and will add yet another weapon to the Royals arsenal. SP's Rich Fikac and Corban Norton made progress last season and continue their march toward the bigs. Norton may make an appearance toward the end of the season and look for him in S3. First baseman Kenneth Mulholland joins Martin as the top position prospects in the system.

Individual Awards:

All Stars:
    P Diego Suarez
    P Buck Decker
    P Wandy Batista
    1B Harry Skinner
    3B Stone Bowen

Silver Slugger:
    1B Harry Skinner
    3B Stone Bowen

Gold Glove
    C Landon Taylor



Tampa Bay Rays

A second place finish well behind the Royals means the Rays have work to do in Season 2. Offensively the work has already begun and at the time of writing only seven position players are listed on the 25 man ML roster as ovechkin made the decision to release five position players from last years roster. DH Cody Wall had a great fist half and was rewarded with an All Star nod but the best offensive performer for the Rays was Vern Rose who hit .289 with 42 bombs and 132 RBI. Despite a low team average and a general lack of power the Rays were still able to score runs last season and it was their pitching who let them down. It remains to be seen what plans ovechkin has for filling his roster out but with the key players from last years lineup returning the offense should stay on track in S2.

The pitching is in flux this season with a number of arms who both performed well and bad leaving the squad. Like the offensive side, there are still moves to be made for ovechkin at the time of writing as there are only nine pitchers currently on the 25 man roster. The Rays still look to have the same problem that they did last season; a lack of true starting pitching. One would assume ovechkin will go after some starting pitching to try and tighten up the staff. If he can add a couple decent arms the Rays may have a chance at chasing the WC this season.

One solution may be to call up blue chip SP Scott Lewis. Although Lewis could use another season or two of development he represents a huge bump in the quality of the rotation, despite still needing development. Bubbles Malone was drafted with the 7th overall pick and will help the staff enormously but likely not until S5 at the very earliest. The position side of the system has a handful of decent prospects who could contribute one day. Catcher Paul Chen, who looks to have both the defensive and offensive skills to be an All Star although he still needs about three more seasons to develop.

Individual Awards:

All Stars:
    DH Cody Wall



Charlotte Knights


Expectations weren't high in Charlotte in Season 1 due to a lack of offense on the roster. Some may have thought that Gary Adams and Willie Quintanilla may have been able to make the team competitive but Quintanilla underwent elbow surgery and only made eight starts. Adams put up decent numbers and likely didn't deserve 13 losses but something remains desired of his S1 performance and a better quality season is expected from him in S2. Veteran reliever Pedro Morlan turned in a fine season with 51 appearances and a 3.63 ERA. Benito Fernandez was called up late last year and his performance would best be described as shaky. Still, better things are expected of the now 24 year old and he should bolster the rotation for S2. Quintanilla needs to stay healthy, if he can this rotation should be dependable for the Knights.

One of last years top signings, Raul Roque, was thrown into the fire last season after being signed early and performed admirably. Outfielder Rudy Webster had a breakout season at the dish and drove in 104 while hitting .318 with 23 bombs. Free swinging 3B Matty Frias had the most surprising season with 35 dingers and 101 RBI. Still, though, this team is lacking offense although they may have enough power to back the rotation and pickup some more wins this season. Another third place finish seems about right for this squad, which should suit ovechkin  tropicana as he waits for his blue chippers to come up through the minors.

Speaking of minors, uber blue chipper SP Red Bohanon and ready to contribute SP Vladimir Henriquez make up an impressive stock of arms. CF prospect Stevie Cambridge is also ML ready and should see time up top this season. A minor setback to the Knights was the failure to sign 19th overall pick, pitcher Buzz Cole. Cole was represented by his mom, which led to trouble signing and will return to college for his junior year.

Individual Awards:

None



Texas Rangers

The pitching staff in Texas was a major disappointment in S1. It's true that the offense didn't back them very well, but some performances were eye opening. The decision by willsauve to only use one of the best SP's in the majors, Jose Alfonzo, as a reliver confounds me. Alfonzo put up good numbers but only threw 89 innings in 72 appearances for the Rangers. It's doubtful that Alfonzo would have made much of a difference in the Rangers final standing but it's still a head scratcher. Marino Oropesa had a bad season by his standards and should bounce back in S2. Luther Bartee will make his ML debut to start the season and adds yet another great arm to the rotation. A few other callups should bolster the Rangers pen and allow Alfonzo to return to starting duty. This could be the best staff in the league.

As expected the Rangers offense couldn't push many runs across the plate last season. There were many OK performances from the squad but just not enough consistency. To prospect Raymond Cornelius has been called up and immediately becomes the best hitter on the team. Still, it doesn't feel like there's enough talent here to strike fear into too many opposition pitchers hearts. It will be up to the staff to get it done this season. If they can perform anywhere near what you'd expect from them this team could compete for the WC.

With the 5th overall pick the Rangers added CF John Takada to bolster the position side of their system. They still boast the deepest stock of pitching potential in the league with guys like Marcus Smith, Ross Aaron and Mark Helton, all of whom are very close to coming to the majors. Basically, willsauve is going to be able to feature a staff of almost all above average talent in just a season or two, very scary stuff.

Individual Awards:

Gold Glove
    1B Gil Roosevelt

S2 AL East Predictions

AL East

Baltimore  88-74
Boston      79-83
Cleveland  73-89
New York 69-93

I called this the most balanced division in the AL last season, well I was wrong there and also wrong in my predictions. Baltimore took the division with 88 wins and the only better than .500 record. There's a lot of offense in this division but just not enough pitching depth to make it very competitive. All four franchises had some facet of their team under perform and it will be interested to see if any of them can get a consistent performance this season, if any team can they are likely to walk to a division title.

Prediction:

Baltimore
Cleveland
Boston
New York 


Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore shocked the world last season, or at least just me, when they won the division after I predicted them to finish dead last in the AL East. The offense performed well and their pitching gave them enough to put away Boston the disappointing Red Sox by 9 games. There weren't any real stand out stars at the plate for the division winners, which gives a reason as to why their power numbers were so low (5th lowest HR total in the majors). Wilton Buchholz put up a solid season although lacked the power numbers you'd like to see from a first baseman. Rolando Feliz, not expected to be much of a contributor, put in a solid season with 26 homers and 96 RBI while stealing 32 bags. There were no major additions to the lineup in the offseason but with catcher Gary Wise departing the offense will take a slight hit but should still produce in S2.

No major departures on the hill for the Orioles combined with a youthful staff means you can expect the same level of pitching, if not better, for the O's this season. Barney Anderson posted the best season as a starter and looks to improve upon his performance. A rookie last season Lon Jefferies turned in a solid season but one would think he will be better in his sophomore season. He may be the key to another division title, and maybe even a bye in the playoffs, for this Baltimore squad.

Two nice Latin signings and a solid reliever taken with the final pick of the first round made up a successful year of acquiring young talent to stock the O's system with. While not world killers, SP/LR Gorkys Maradona out of Mexico and 2B Asdrubal Velazaquez out of the Dominican will definitely make their mark on the majors one day. When added to the depth that Baltimore already had in the minors and you have one of the best minor league systems out there. Another 2B prospect, Christian Grahe, and a five tool star in CF Humberto Rosado round out an excellent lot of position prospects for Baltimore.

Individual Awards:

All Stars:
    P Barney Anderson
 
Gold Glove
   2B O.T. O'Leary


Boston Red Sox

Watching this team must have been a misery in the stands at Fenway last season; a high powered offense undone by an under-manned staff ... which also featured the AL Cy Young winner. Yup... just another season at Fenway. A preseason Cy Young favorite, Paxton Booker showed up and did his part with 19 wins and stellar 2.65 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, not to mention a K/9 of 9.14. But his effort was only undermined by bad performances like the one Flip Romero put in, 2 wins in 26 starts and an ERA just north of 8. Even great offensive performances like that of C Magglio Bennett, 54 HR, 141 RBI, and AL ROY Kazuya Chang, 34 HR/108 RBI/ 34 SB .300 AVG, couldn't overcome atrocious pitching.

This team could be a rollercoaster to watch once again. The late season call ups and of SP's Felipe Esposito and Alvin Wells showed the fans at Fenway a glimpse of what could be. With the two planted firmly on the big league roster to start the season the expectations are through the roof. There are plenty of teams who the phrase "If the pitching/hitting can perform just that much better they will be contenders" describes well, but that phrase may describe Boston the best. Even if the youngsters can improve the performance of the staff to a level just below average, as opposed to a terrible one, it would allow one of the most capable lineups in the majors to lead this team to a division win and, perhaps, a nice run in the playoffs.

As if they need anymore help on offense the Sox minors features two big bopping DH/C's in Hack Beaulac and Sean Murray. Even though Esposito and Wells have left the minors the Sox still have Brian Cheng, a very nice sandwich pick SP who is only a couple years from being ML ready, and a host of other ML quality relievers in their system.

Individual Awards:

All Stars:
     P Paxton Booker
    C Roger Michaels
    RF Kazuya Chang

Cy Young
    Paxton Booker

AL ROY
    RF Kazuya Chang




Cleveland Indians

An offense that was expected to be dependable and a pitching staff that was suspect on paper switched sides in a disappointing year for the Indians. The power in the bats was seemingly there as the Indians ranked in the upper half for home runs, but those dingers mostly came without ducks on the pond as the team ranked far into the lower half for RBI. AL ROY candidate Joey Oswalt showed why he was regarded as one of the to prospects after turning in line of 37/107 while hitting .292. Fellow rookie Everth Molina put up a respectable season but a little more remains to be desired from his performance at the plate.

Not a lot has changed on the mound for the Indians and Tribe fans hope to see another better than expected performance out of their staff this season. No one posted a stellar season, as evidenced by the fact that Cleveland had no All Stars, but Shawn Witt's is worth mentioning. As a 24 year old Witt threw 130 innings in splitting long relief duties with 18 starts. He threw up a team leading 3.18 ERA,  and had the second best WHIP on the team at 1.16. Heading into S2 a lack of SP's with true starter stamina will present some road blocks and a lot of pressure will be put on youngster Mariano Limon, who had a disappointing rookie campaign.

With the 26th pick overall Cleveland was unable to come to terms with high school pitcher Sam Dickerson but did pickup a good reliever with the 74th overall in Marquis Albers.SP Anibal Guerrerao and RF Don Becker remain the to prospects of the Indians system with both only about a year away from being full time major leaguers.

Individual Awards:

None


New York Yankees

An all around below average team effort doomed the Yanks last season and the team I picked to finish second in the division finished last instead. The offense was unable to get it going despite the presence of two guys who stole a combined 156 bases last year; LF Mitchell Bass and rookie CF Allen Callaway. Willie Hand put up solid numbers at 37/113 but couldn't find consistency in his swing and only hit .269 at second base. After Bass, Callaway and Hand there wasn't much else to write home about as the rest of the offense struggled. Some call ups and FA signings will mix in this season although on paper none look to jump start the offense. Willie Julio is as pure of a power hitter as they come and if he can find a groove could possibly provide enough offense to propel this team in the WC chase.

As a rookie Todd Holloway impressed enough to make the All Star team, but his second half didn't match his first and he ended up with a pedestrian 12-10 record, allowing opponents to hit .261 with a 1.33 WHIP. Holloway needs to find his first half form for this team to compete. The team wins leader, Tom Collins put up decent numbers but an OAV of .272 raises some eyebrows for a guy who is supposed to be the staff ace.

How can any of us forget the infamous #1 overall draft pick by outgoing Owner/GM soxyanks12? Barry Harding will close out many wins while wearing the Pinstripes and is arguably a top 10 pick but the selection of a reliever at #1 will be a subject of debate for seasons to come in For Life. Seeking to add yet more RP depth to a system that already had it, soxyanks also signed Vladimir Aguilar, who has a plus sinker and slider but may only be a middle reliever at best, out of Mexico.

Individual Awards:
All Stars:
    P Todd Holloway
    LF Mitchell Bass

Silver Slugger:
    LF Mitchell Bass